Greta Gerwig’s Mattel-made satire Barbie is set to win out the much-hyped box office competition with a projected US opening of $110m.
The $145m-budgeted film, the first from the recently created Mattel Studios which stars Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, will probably triumph over Christopher Nolan’s biopic Oppenheimer, the competitive release date having created a much-hyped rivalry dubbed Barbenheimer.
Barbie’s distributor, Warner Bros, is being more conservative with estimates, eyeing a $75m start in the US yet analysts are expecting as much as $110m with some even suggesting it could go as high as $140m. Barbie is likely to break a record for the highest-opening film in the US made by a female director, currently held by Wonder Woman which started with $103m.
Nolan’s $100m-budgeted film starring Cillian Murphy as the so-called father of the atomic bomb is set to open to $50m this weekend in the US with that figure taken up to at least $100m worldwide.
Barbie opens in 4,200 cinemas in the US, 600 more than Oppenheimer. Nolan’s film is also one hour longer, allowing for fewer showings. The cinema chain AMC has revealed that more than 40,000 people have booked tickets to see both films on opening day.
“I’ve been in the business of tracking and analyzing box office trends and movies for 30 years now, and I’ve never quite seen anything like this,” Comcast analyst Paul Dergarabedian told IGN about the showdown.
While this summer has seen a number of box office successes, including Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse, there have also been more notable bombs, including The Flash, which is set to lose distributor Warner Bros at least $200m, making it the biggest superhero flop in history. Other disappointments include animated adventure Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, belated sequel Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, ribald comedy Joy Ride, Pixar’s Elemental and starry follow-up Book Club: The Next Chapter.
Last week, Tom Cruise’s $291m-budgeted sequel Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One opened to $78m over five days in the US, less than the projected $90m bow.
This summer’s set of films have yet to top April’s Nintendo smash Super Mario Bros Movie, which has made over $1.3bn worldwide. It’s the only film this year to make over $1bn.
According to Comscore, ticket sales in the US are down 20% from the same period in 2019 before box office was hampered by the pandemic.
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