Food bills in the UK have risen by £605 a year for the average household because of the effects of climate breakdown, according to research.
Floods and droughts, which scientists have said were probably exacerbated by global heating, have reduced crop yields over the past two years, said the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), a nonprofit organisation.
Energy bills lifted by the rising price of fossil fuels have damaged the agricultural industry, pushing some farmers out of business and leading others not to plant in greenhouses.
These two factors alone, according to the ECIU report, have added £17bn to the UK food bill since the end of 2021. The report was carried out by researchers from Bournemouth, Exeter and Sheffield universities who have recently advised the government on what was causing food inflation in the UK. They have said a confirmed El Niño event in 2024 is likely to worsen the situation. El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by weak tradewinds that can massively disrupt weather around the world, bringing floods and other extreme events.
Prof Wyn Morgan, one of the report’s authors, said: “It is clear from the evidence that climate change is an increasingly prominent feature amongst the drivers of food price inflation. In 2022, energy costs dominated the headlines and these fed through to a high headline rate of inflation for food. And yet, as energy costs have fallen back, climate change has emerged as a bigger driver of inflation for food over the last two years.
“Assuming average food price inflation of 15% for 2023, our results would suggest that climate change alone will account for a third of price increases this year. Given we expect climate impacts to get worse, it is likely that climate change will continue to fuel a cost of living crisis for the foreseeable future. With an El Niño event now confirmed, 2024 may have even worse in store for hard-pressed shoppers.”
Food price inflation hit nearly 20% globally this year as harvests around the world were disrupted by extreme weather. It remains at 10% in the UK. Store-cupboard staples remain at a high price; for example, olive oil is 50% more expensive than previously after two years of droughts and heatwaves in southern Europe.
Sir Alok Sharma, who was president of Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow, said: “The negative impacts of a changing world climate are here and now and are putting real upwards pressure on the cost of living. From staples like wheat and rice to fruits like bananas and oranges, our food supplies are global and it is therefore imperative that the UK continues to show leadership in its efforts to tackle the climate crisis, so that we bring other nations with us and help cut the risks to our food security.”
The UK is not immune to crop failures caused by extreme weather events. The drought in 2022 wiped out many potato and onion crops, and there was an unusually wet harvest this year that damaged yields. More recently, Storm Babet left hundreds of acres of prime farmland underwater, where vegetables rotted.
Nature-friendly farming methods could help alleviate some of these risks, Tom Lancaster, a land analyst at ECIU, said: “The good news is that steps to make farming more sustainable can not only cut emissions but also make our food production more resilient to the extremes of flooding and drought. Government plans in England to support greener farming with more hedgerows, improved soil health and tree planting schemes are therefore vital to our future food security.”
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