The 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium, home of the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs — who just so happen to be the bookmakers’ pick to repeat.
The Chiefs are 6-1 favorites to win it all again, per Bet MGM’s final pre-season odds. If they do so, they would become the first team to claim back-to-back titles since the New England Patriots in the 2004 and 2005 seasons. With franchise quarterback Patrick Mahomes, high expectations have become the norm in Kansas City; since he became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have won two Super Bowls, lost one, and reached the AFC championship game every season.
But before you jump on those 6-1 odds, there are some caveats. First, there’s the protracted contract holdout of defensive tackle Chris Jones, a four-time Pro Bowl selection. Jones says he’s prepared to sit out the first half of the season, creating a potentially big hole on defense for the Chiefs. There’s also the knee injury sustained this week by tight end Travis Kelce, a favorite Mahomes target and key cog in the Chiefs offense. The injury appears far less serious than it could have been and Kelce hasn’t missed a game due to injury in 10 years, but he may be out for the opener against the Detroit Lions.
There’s also a trend working against the Chiefs: In the last 15 seasons, the pre-season favorite has only won the Super Bowl twice. This was a trend that continued last season when the pre-season favorite Buffalo Bills went down to defeat in the divisional round of the playoffs.
So if the Chiefs don’t repeat, where else are bettors looking? Here are the final pre-season Super Bowl odds for each team, again per BetMGM:
A few things jump out here.
First, there are the Philadelphia Eagles, who are favored to win the NFC and face the Chiefs in what would be a Super Bowl rematch. A note of caution here: Only once since the AFL/NFL merger in 1966 has the Super Bowl featured a rematch of the previous season’s participants — the 1992 and 1993 seasons, when the Dallas Cowboys beat up on the Bills in back-to-back title games.
Beyond the Eagles, the Bills check in at 9-1 to win it all, followed by the San Francisco 49ers, where bettors might see value in their 10-1 odds. The Niners began last year with Trey Lance as their quarterback, only to lose him to a season-ending injury in Week 2. Then, Lance’s backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, took over only to suffer an injury of his own in December. That left the QB position in the hands of rookie Brock Purdy, who proceeded to win seven straight games as the starter and lead the team to the NFC title game against Philadelphia — only to suffer an injury of his own in the first quarter of that game, effectively ending the 49ers season on the spot. A healthy Purdy enters this season as the starter; if he can pick up where he left off — and steer clear of a sophomore slump — San Francisco is an obvious contender.
A few other notes on the odds:
- The Cowboys are again seen as contenders, at 15-1 to win the Super Bowl. But after winning two Super Bowls and attaining dynasty status in the early ’90s, they have been a postseason underachiever, last appearing in the NFC title game in 1995 season.
- With Aaron Rodgers moving from the Green Bay Packers to New York, the Jets clock in at just 18-1 to grab the Vince Lombardi Trophy. The last time the odds were this low — and the expectations this high — for the Jets was in the run-up to the 2011 season, which ended in disappointment with an 8-8 record and no playoff berth. The Jets have now missed the playoffs for 12 consecutive seasons, the longest current drought.
- Speaking of droughts, the Lions have won a grand total of *one* playoff game in the past 65 seasons; that win came in the 1991-92 season, when, led by running back Barry Sanders, they beat Washington and made it to the NFC title game. But the Lions ended last year on a tear, winning seven of their final nine games, finishing with a winning record and barely missing the playoffs. Quarterback Jared Goff seemed rejuvenated, throwing zero interceptions in the final nine games of the year and Detroit fans are feeling hope and excitement like they haven’t in decades.
As mentioned above, the pre-season favorite usually doesn’t win the Super Bowl. In fact, the last three winners (Kansas City last year, Tampa Bay in the 2021 season and the Chiefs in 2020) all started the year with odds of at least 10-1. All told, nine of the last 15 Super Bowl winners began the year with double-digit odds, and the longest shot to win the Super Bowl in the last 15 years: the Philadelphia Eagles, who entered the 2017 season at 40-1 and ended it with a Super Bowl win over New England.
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