UK inflation report to show if cost of living squeeze eased in May – business live | Business #inflation #report #show #cost #living #squeeze #eased #business #live #Business

Today is “crunch time”, says our economics editor Larry Elliott, who believes today’s inflation bulletin could be the most significant piece of government data published this year.

Larry explains:

It is crunch time for Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, who want voters to judge the government by the progress it makes in tackling inflation and calming the markets. Halving inflation during 2023 was one of the five new year pledges made by the prime minister in January, but the decline so far has been slower than expected. To have any hope of winning the next election, Sunak and Hunt need interest rates to come down fast.

It is crunch time for the Bank, which has the job of hitting the government’s 2% inflation target and is now facing mounting criticism. So far the brickbats have tended to come from those who say the Bank was too slow to respond to price pressures and has allowed inflation to become embedded. But there are also those who say because interest rates work with a lag, the Bank risks driving Britain into a deep recession.

Wednesday is also crunch time for the UK’s housing market and the millions of people paying mortgages. The ONS says 57% of those who took out fixed rate home loans did so when rates were below 2%. Those whose deals expire in the coming months will be refinancing at three times those rates.

Good morning.

One of the most eagerly anticipated pieces of UK economic data in recent years will be released shortly.

May’s inflation report, due at 7am, will show if the cost of living crisis eased last month, and influence how high UK interest rates will be raised to slow the economy.

Economists expect the annual pace of inflation eased last month, to 8.4% in the year to May. That would be a small, but welcome, drop on April’s 8.7% inflation rate. But it would still mean a painful squeeze on household budgets.

Mortgage-holders will be desperate to see inflation fall, as borrowing costs have risen sharply in recent months. Yesterday, the average rate on a two-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.07%, Moneyfacts reporter, the highest since November.

Policymakers at the Bank of England are equally keen to see a slowdown in consumer price rises. The BoE’s target is to keep inflation at 2%, so it is forecast to raise interest rates for the 13th time in a row on Thursday, probably from 4.5% to 4.75%.

The BoE will also be looking at the latest figures for core inflation (stripping out food and energy), which is expected to stick at an annual rate of 6.8%.

The money markets have indicated UK interest rates could hit 6% by early next year.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, thinks 6% could be unlikely, though:

“Thursday’s rate rise looks nailed on but what is beginning to filter through to markets is uncertainty about what comes next. The chancellor might have ruled out government help for mortgage holders facing a horrifying cliff edge but there’s little doubt that what’s happening in the mortgage market is deeply destabilising to the economy.

“The UK might have skirted recession up until now but suck thousands of pounds out of the pockets of middle earners and all those retailers, hospitality businesses and other service sector companies are likely to take a hit, and the uptick in GDP the country enjoyed in April might not be forthcoming in the months ahead.

“And that will be the possibility being weighed up by members of the MPC ahead of their decision this week, but also the words they will use when discussing the outlook.

The government will also be crossing their fingers and hoping that inflation comes down soon, given Rishi Sunak’s target of halving it (to 5%) by the end of the year….

The agenda

• 7am BST: UK inflation report for May

• 9.30am BST: UK house price index for April

• 11am BST: CBI’s industrial trends survey of UK manufacturing