As a shower of marigold petals were flung over the crowds and cries of “Modi, Modi” filled the air, it could mean only one thing: election season has begun in India.
Voting opened on Wednesday in India’s southern state of Karnataka to decide who will form the next state government and the significance of these polls is likely to stretch far beyond state borders. On Saturday, thousands filled the streets of the state capital, Bengaluru, as the prime minister, Narendra Modi, drove 20 miles through the city, waving atop a car, in an attempt to galvanise votes for his ruling Bharatiya Janata party, one of over 9,000 rallies and roadshows held by the BJP across the state.
With the 2024 general election less than a year away, what happens in Karnataka could set the stage for the future of India’s electoral democracy and is crucial for the BJP and the main opposition National Congress party, whose recent electoral record has mostly been one of failure. Bengaluru, formerly known as Bangalore, has become India’s tech capital, drawing in international business and makes Karnataka one of the the most economically vibrant states in the country. One local newspaper editorial recently described the campaign for Karnataka as a “a battleground that is outpacing any other in living memory”.
For the BJP, who have ruled Karnataka since 2018, it is a state that needs to be retained at all costs. While their Hindu nationalist politics now dominate the north and western states of the country, with the BJP and its allies controlling 16 states and union territories, Karnataka is their only foothold in the south. It is seen as a crucial part of the BJP’s plan to make further inroads into the country’s prosperous tip, with their next sights set on the nearby states of Telangana and Tamil Nadu.
The fate of Congress also rests heavily on the outcome in Karnataka. Once India’s dominant party who ruled for over five decades, it now has only three states left under its control, and has been racked with allegations of internal discord, elitism and ceding all ideological ground to the BJP.
Even Congress leaders admit they have no longer have a chance at opposing the BJP on a national level in 2024 on their own, but they are pushing for a coalition with other opposition parties. Winning Karnataka would give the party a better bargaining platform with other parties, as well as regaining some momentum for its members.
“We see our victory in Karnataka as a stepping stone to our comeback,” said Ramalinga Reddy, a former state home minister and Congress working president. “The corrupt face of the BJP has been exposed to the public. The voters have been suffering because of the recruitment issues, corruption and the soaring prices of essential commodities. On a national level, a time will come soon when all the parties of different agendas will fight the BJP united as one.”
Though it is by far India’s strongest party, the BJP faces an uphill battle in the state. For the past 38 years, no incumbent government has won in Karnataka and polling shows the party on course to lose. The BJP government has also been dogged by public accusations of rampant corruption, with trade bodies accusing officials of demanding a 40% cut on deals and job recruitment.
On the streets of Bengaluru there was also anger at rising inflation and the cost of living, and declining job prospects outside of the city, reflecting the wider economic issues that could cause problems for the BJP going into the general election. Even rallies by some of the BJP’s star names, including the hardline chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, only drew lacklustre crowds.
“The BJP have ruined this state with their corruption,” said Isamail Jabiullah, 33, a taxi driver. “They get rich while we have to pay more for food, to live. People here are fed up. And the worst thing they have done is create a Hindu-Muslim divide in the state, creating tensions where there weren’t any before.”
While the Hindu right wing has had a presence in the state, particularly in coastal Karnataka, for decades, the most recent BJP government has implemented some of the most hardline Hindu nationalist policies seen anywhere in the country, including a ban on the hijab in government schools and colleges, and is accused of drawing deeper communal lines in the state.
Tejasvi Surya, one of the BJP’s youngest and most popular MPs in Karnataka, denied the party had made any religious divisions in the state and hit back at the allegations of corruption. “Not a single one of these corruption allegations has been proved in any court of law,” he said, accusing Congress of having “no moral authority” to make such accusations when their leader Rahul Gandhi was recently convicted of defamation, a case he alleged was politically motivated. “The prime minister’s policies have yielded a great amount of prosperity and growth in the state. Karnataka loves the prime minister like no other state does.”
Indeed, in an effort to swing the election in its favour, in the final days of campaigning the BJP repeatedly wielded its greatest political weapon: Modi. Even for those dissatisfied with the party at state level, there is widespread reverence for Modi as the country’s leader. He attended 19 campaign rallies and roadshows in the last few weeks and issued an open letter to the people of Karnataka the day before voting opened. “Modi is one of the biggest vote aggregators of our time in Indian politics, there’s no doubt about it,” said Rahul Verma, a political analyst at the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi.
The adoration for Modi was on show over the weekend during his Bengaluru roadshow, with concerns voiced by critics that his Hindu nationalist agenda and creeping authoritarianism is eroding India’s democracy, dismissed by voters, including Muslims, who lined the streets. The overwhelming feeling was that Modi had elevated India’s fortunes and international reputation and would sweep the the 2024 general election, no matter what happened in Karnataka.
Rita Jain, 22, who was carrying a cut out of the home minister, Amit Shah, said: “Modi’s ideology has taken India to an international level. His popularity is getting stronger not only in India but all over the world, you just have to see that he is the most followed politician on Instagram. People think politics is only for old people but this time the younger generation are participating because of Modi-ji.”
“Modi has done so many great things for us in Karnataka and for India internationally. He makes me proud of being Indian,” added Santhosh Gopal, a businessman from Bengaluru. “I think we will see a Modi government for the next 60 years.”
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