The result of the Indigenous voice referendum may not be known on voting day or for some time afterward, with the electoral commissioner warning people “may be disappointed” if they expect a definitive answer on the night.
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is also concerned about dangerous mis- and disinformation circulating ahead of the referendum, already stamping out voting-related conspiracy theories imported from the US.
Polling workers will also get more training and security after what the commissioner, Tom Rogers, called “disturbing” incidents at recent elections, including staff being filmed and accused of stealing ballot papers, and online threats of violence.
The AEC is still debunking claims about Dominion voting machines, an electoral technology at the centre of conspiracy theories around the 2020 US election, but which Australia has never used.
“It’s as nutty as it can get … people are still peddling this conspiracy theory,” Rogers said.
The AEC is planning a significant public awareness campaign around the referendum, Australia’s first in 24 years, which will take place in the last quarter of 2023. Mid-October is seen as a likely timeframe.
Rogers stressed the AEC’s role was to talk about and debunk misinformation regarding the electoral process only, and would not weigh in on the content of the referendum itself or the Indigenous voice.
The AEC is already running information campaigns on Twitter, Facebook, Youtube and Reddit, similar to work through recent elections. It will translate the official information pamphlet into nearly 60 languages, including at least 20 Indigenous languages.
Rogers said the commission was already addressing previously debunked electoral falsehoods, as well as people misunderstanding the referendum processes. The AEC is concerned some voters may confuse the rules of the 2017 marriage equality postal survey with the referendum.
Unlike the postal survey, it is compulsory to vote in a referendum, and the result is binding.
In a media briefing, Rogers said national enrolment was around 97%, with Indigenous enrolment around 84.5%. The AEC is undertaking further enrolment drives especially targeting Indigenous Australians, with the deputy commissioner, Jeff Pope, saying reforms allowing enrolment with only a Medicare card had added tens of thousands of people to the electoral roll.
The AEC’s information campaign will also draw attention to the referendum count. For a proposal to be successful, it must achieve a “double majority” – a national majority plus a majority of voters in four out of six states.
Rogers noted the rise in the use of postal votes, which may take days to arrive and be counted.
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“I get [that] people really want a result,” he said. “I’d just caution them, if this is a really close result, people are going to be disappointed if they’re expecting a result on the night.”
The AEC will publish results on a rolling basis once polls close at 6pm on voting day, like a standard election. Results will be displayed online on a national count and a state-by-state count, plus by polling booth and electorate.
The latest Guardian Essential poll found 60% in favour of the Indigenous voice.
Rogers said the AEC was working with social media companies to remove dangerous online activity. He said there had been “vague references to violence against AEC staff”, and noted incidents at the New South Wales state election where polling workers had been filmed or subjected to conspiracy theories about stealing votes.
Rogers said the AEC had given staff at the Aston byelection “additional resources to assist”, including examining security arrangements and providing workers with paper handouts to give to concerned voters, outlining what polling staff were legally allowed to do.
The AEC’s digital engagement director, Evan Ekin-Smyth, said there had been a “stark” escalation in issues online between the 2019 and 2022 elections, including conspiracy theories emanating from overseas.
“It’s probably continuing on in what I’d categorise as a downward trend in terms of its nature,” he said, “which is disappointing, but makes our role even more important”.
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